Obama Commits to Middle East Peace in Cairo; Confirms Afghan Escalation (June 5, 2009)

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Welcome to FCNL's Greater Middle East Diplomacy Update for June 5, 2009

"To put it simply, all key issues in the Middle East… are inextricably linked." Iraq Study Group, December 2006

Obama in Cairo: President Commits to Israel-Palestine Peace, Realistic Iran Nuclear Accord; Confirms Afghanistan Escalation

President Obama's speech yesterday in Cairo is a canonical text that will be the subject of reaction, analysis, and commentary for weeks, and will likely occupy historians for decades. It was, as advertised, a speech to the Muslim world, but it was also designed to speak to audiences in Israel and the United States.

Two immediate reactions that illustrate the power of the speech to connect with different audiences came from Ahmed Yusuf, a senior Hamas official in Gaza, and Daniel Levy, a former Israeli peace negotiator. Yusuf told al-Jazeera news that the speech reminded him of Martin Luther King's "I have a dream" speech. Levy, who is currently a Washington-based analyst, termed it "the most compelling justification and explanation of Israel's rights and its existence ever spoken in an Arab and Muslim capital."

Here are some conclusions that we at FCNL have drawn from the complex and nuanced speech:

President Obama has crossed the Rubicon in his pursuit of a two-state Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement. Before Cairo, it was not clear that Obama would commit the power of his presidency to the task. It is now. After terming the situation of the Palestinians "intolerable," speaking of the humiliations of occupation and the pain of 60 years of dislocation, and pledging to personally pursue a two-state solution, retreat would be as damaging to his foreign policy as whatever opposition he may have to face at home would be to his domestic standing. U.S. envoy George Mitchell travels to Jerusalem Monday to pursue the U.S. objective of a complete freeze on Israeli settlement building that the president reaffirmed in Cairo.

The United States is signaling a solution of the Iran nuclear dispute that many analysts believe is attainable. The United States will accept an Iranian civilian nuclear program if Iran complies with the requirements of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. There is some ambiguity in the president's exact words: "Any nation - including Iran - should have the right to access peaceful nuclear power if it complies with its responsibilities under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty." It is hard to reconcile these words with a refusal to recognize Iran's right under the treaty to enrich uranium, provided Iran accepts full safeguards against diversion for a weapons program.

While promising on Israel-Palestine and Iran, Obama's speech offered no alternative to his policy of military escalation in Afghanistan. He said the United States will "relentlessly confront violent extremists" because "we reject the same thing that people of all faiths reject: the killing of innocent men, women, and children", but he made no mention of Afghan civilian deaths from U.S. and NATO military action. He did affirm that the United States sought no permanent troop presence or military bases in Afghanistan, but identified the Taliban as well as al-Qaeda as implacable enemies of the United States.

The president said the United States would accept the results of future Middle East elections. "We will welcome all elected, peaceful governments," he said, "provided they govern with respect for all their people." His commitment signaled a willingness to engage with Islamist parties in the region that the Bush Administration shunned. Elections in Lebanon next week could result in a bigger role for Hizbullah. Palestinian reconciliation talks or elections next year could lead to participation of Hamas in a new government. In Egypt any future liberalization could bring the main opposition group, the Muslim Brotherhood, into government.

For more FCNL analysis of the Obama speech, click here. For Daniel Levy's analysis click here.

Afghanistan: Sen. Webb Questions Plans for Afghan Army at McChrystal Confirmation Hearing

The Senate Armed Services Committee held its confirmation hearing June 2 for President Obama's new commander in Afghanistan, Lt. Gen. Stanley McChrystal. With the exception of Sen. Jim Webb (VA), the committee had few probing questions for McChrystal. Most senators limited themselves to statements of support for the administration's Afghanistan policy.

Sen. John McCain (AZ) said he supported the "long overdue change of course" in Afghanistan. "The war there and in Pakistan is one that we can and must win," he added. Committee Chair Carl Levin (MI) stated that "All instruments of U.S. and coalition power, not just military force but also diplomatic, economic and legal tools, will be needed to turn the situation in Afghanistan around."

Webb questioned the feasibility of building the Afghan army that the administration has said is the key to its exit strategy. He noted that the largest army that Afghanistan has ever been able to muster, with the support of the former Soviet Union, was 80,000 to 90,000. Webb asked McChrystal how he thought Afghanistan could meet the current goal of raising 134,000 troops or even the 160,000 to 200,000 that McChrystal and other senators suggested might be needed to provide stability. McChrystal replied, "I know it would be a challenge for lots of reasons. Afghanistan's got a population of about 34 million, but it also is struggling with about 28 percent literacy." He added, "I think it's one of the things that must be done."

Iran: Former AIPAC Analyst Says Dialogue Only Way to Remove Iran Nuclear Threat

In a recent interview with the Jerusalem Post a former senior Iran analyst for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) declared that there was no viable military solution for dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat. "Dialogue," Keith Weissman said, "is the only viable solution. Weissman, who worked with AIPAC until 2005 when he was charged with espionage for allegedly passing a U.S. Iran policy paper to Israel, said Israeli fears about an Iranian nuclear weapon were understandable but he believes that Iranian leaders "are not fanatics and they're not suicidal" and that Israel has the power to successfully deter any Iranian attack. Charges against Weissman and a former AIPAC colleague were recently dropped. The U.S. government worker who passed the document to Weissman and his colleague is currently serving a 12-year sentence for espionage. FCNL sent a copy of the Jerusalem Post article to members of Congress last week.

Israel-Palestine: Churches for Middle East Peace Joins in Ecumenical Letter Urging Obama to Press for Israeli-Palestinian Peace

Coinciding with President Obama's speech in Cairo, Churches for Middle East Peace joined with an unprecedented array of more than fifty church leaders to urge the Obama administration to press ahead with a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict. Signers included mainstream, evangelical and African-American church leaders. FCNL Executive Secretary Joe Volk signed for FCNL.

The letter said that "continued settlement growth and expansion are rapidly diminishing any possibility for the creation of a viable Palestinian state" and urged the administration to "exhibit no tolerance for Israeli settlement activity." "While working to end rocket attacks against the people of southern Israel," the letter said, "the U.S. should also seek immediate relief for the population of Gaza-living in rubble and without basic necessities-by ending restrictions on humanitarian goods and opening the borders to reconstruction material, commerce and transit in a secure manner."

Take Action: Sign the CMEP Ecumenical Petition

President Obama will face opposition in Congress to his Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts. Congress has too often heard the drumbeat of forces that support the status quo, play on fear, and court wider U.S. military actions. Congress needs to hear the beat of a different drummer. You can make them hear that beat at this critical moment by signing on to the ecumenical letter that Churches for Middle East Peace has turned into a petition to President Obama. The petition will also be shared with members of Congress.