Welcome to FCNL's Biweekly Iraq & Region Update for February 8, 2008
Welcome to FCNL's Biweekly Iraq and Region Update for February 8, 2008
This update includes reports on…
- congressional efforts to stop the administration from establishing permanent U.S. bases in Iraq, and
- an unusual call for an Israel-Hamas ceasefire
- as well as a suggestion for lobbying and a selection of articles, documents and reports.
I. In Congress
Congress appears to be scoring some points in a contest to prevent President Bush from committing the U.S. to build permanent bases in Iraq and to provide security guarantees to the Iraqi government without congressional approval. Responding to congressional questions this week, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates testified that the U.S. is not seeking permanent bases in Iraq. He also said it was his understanding that an agreement the U.S. is currently negotiating with Iraq would not include security guarantees that would require a treaty between Iraq and the U.S.
But President Bush is acting as if permanent bases might be in the works. When he signed the military authorization bill into law on January 28, the president said that as commander in chief he could ignore the bill's provision barring the use of any funds "to establish any military installation or base for the purpose of providing for the permanent stationing of United States Armed Forces in Iraq."
The signing statement reinforced concerns over earlier remarks made by General Douglas Lute, the president's Iraq war adviser. Lute said that key items to be negotiated in a U.S.-Iraqi agreement due by July 31 would be the size of the U.S. military presence in Iraq and permanent U.S. bases. The agreement, Lute said, would be based on a Declaration of Principles signed by President Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Malaki. That declaration said the U.S. would extend security guarantees to Iraq to defend the government against both foreign and internal threats, and would act to oppose any attempt to "impede, suspend, or violate" the Iraqi constitution.
What is going on? Secretary Gates' testimony this week could mean that the administration is backing down under congressional scrutiny and will seek only a narrow "status of forces" agreement with Iraq to replace the annual UN Security Council mandate for the U.S. presence. Or it could mean that the administration is divided.
The administration has repeatedly refused to testify about the agreement in Rep. William Delahunt’s (MA) subcommittee of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Rep. Rosa DeLauro (CT) announced today that, along with dozens of other members, she will be sending a letter to the president asking him to ‘start from scratch’ in any agreement with Iraq and to request the Iraqi government to extend the UN mandate for the duration of his presidency rather than negotiating a status of forces agreement.
As emphasized in the hearing, the Secretary's oral testimony offers no guarantee that the White House has given up the effort to present the next administration and Congress with a fait accompli on Iraq. This Congress needs to keep working to make sure that doesn't happen.
II. Annapolis Peace Process Watch
Settler Rabbi and Hamas Journalist Propose Ceasefire Amid an increase in violence that threatens progress toward a Palestinian-Israeli peace agreement, a rabbi from a West Bank settlement and a Hamas-affiliated journalist from Hebron have proposed a plan for a comprehensive Israeli-Hamas ceasefire. The arguments the two make are not unique, but the proposal by Rabbi Menachem Froman of the Jewish settlement of Tekoa near Bethlehem and the well-known journalist Khalid el-Amayreh is nonetheless extraordinary for its source. Agreement between a religious settler and a prominent Islamist is a rare event.
The proposal, submitted to the Hamas leadership and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, calls for Israel to lift its sanctions on Gaza, open border crossings, and end military operations. Hamas would release a captured Israeli soldier and end all assaults on Israeli soldiers and civilians.
"Our proposal was presented to the highest political echelon in the Hamas government in Gaza and gained 100-percent approval," Amayreh told reporters. See the details in Israel's daily Ha'aretz. Learn more about Tekoa's unusual rabbi.
III. Keep on Lobbying
Senator Hillary Clinton (NY) and Rep. Rosa DeLauro (CT) have introduced legislation requiring congressional approval of any agreements with Iraq. This legislation has been an important factor in producing the first signs (as described in the report above) that the administration may be backing away from an effort to commit the U.S. to the long-term occupation of Iraq and a strategic military presence in the country before it leaves office. Urge your senators to cosponsor this legislation in the Senate (S. 2426) and your representative to cosponsor the similar legislation in the House (H.R. 4959).
IV. Articles, Documents, and Reports
Foreign Affairs Article Says Include, Don't Exclude, Iran
"The Costs of Containing Iran: Washington's Misguided New Middle East Policy" by Iran scholars Vali Nasr and Ray Takeyh in the January-February issue of Foreign Affairs makes the case for diplomatic efforts to include Iran in a regional security arrangement in place of the Bush administration's attempt to isolate and deny Iranian interests in the region. Read the article.
Crisis Group Cites Need to Make Sadr Ceasefire Multilateral
"If the downturn in violence in Iraq is to continue, Muqtada al-Sadr's unilateral ceasefire must urgently be converted into a comprehensive multilateral one that creates conditions for his movement to evolve into a legitimate political actor," a new report on Iraq from the Belgium-based International Crisis Group argues. Read Iraq's Civil War, the Sadrists and the Surge.
And Crisis Group Warns of Growing Danger in Afghanistan
A new International Crisis Group (ICG) report says that, six years after the Taliban's ouster from Afghanistan, the international community still lacks a common diagnosis of what is needed to stabilize the country and notes that insurgent violence is severely affecting development efforts in around half the country. Without more coherent international efforts, and new approaches to Pakistan and to U.S.-Iran tensions, the ICG believes extremism in Afghanistan and the region will gain ground. Read Afghanistan: The Need for International Resolve.