Iraq and Region Update for January 25, 2008
Welcome to FCNL's Biweekly Iraq and Region Update of January 25, 2008
In this update:
I. In Congress
"This is not a back door attempt to make a long-term commitment [of U.S. troops to Iraq], this is coming at us through the front door," Rep. David Scott (GA) said at a House foreign affairs subcommittee hearing this week. He was referring to the Bush administration's plan to conclude an agreement with the Iraqi government by the end of July that could keep 50,000 to 100,000 U.S. troops in Iraq for years to come. (See the FCNL Update of November 30, 2007 for background on the U.S.-Iraq "Declaration of Principles" that is the basis of the president's plan.)
The January 23 hearing marked the beginning of congressional engagement with an issue that will be central to the Iraq policy debate in Congress this year and is also spilling over into the presidential election campaign.
Rep. Rosa DeLauro (CT) introduced the first of what we at FCNL expect will be several House bills challenging the president's plan. Her bill, the Iraq Strategic Agreement Review Act (H.R. 4959), would require Congress to be consulted about any agreement with Iraq, declare that any agreement except a treaty ratified by the Senate would not have the force of law, and prohibit funding to implement any agreement except a treaty. Earlier, Sen. Hilary Clinton (NY) introduced a similar bill in the Senate (S. 2426). Presidential primary rival Sen. Barack Obama (IL) has cosponsored this bill.
Bipartisan Challenge and an Emphasis on Diplomacy?
Some of FCNL's lobby contacts on Capitol Hill expect a bipartisan group of members to oppose the administration's initiative, especially in the Senate. Members of both parties want to keep Iraq options open for the next administration and the next Congress, not go into the November elections appearing to support a decades-long occupation of Iraq. Because this agreement could also threaten diplomatic efforts, Senate leaders on both sides of the aisle who favor regional diplomacy to stabilize Iraq could offer a counterproposal that would promote a regional diplomatic offensive. The prospect of a long-term U.S. occupation is likely to reduce the willingness of Iraq's neighbors to cooperate with the U.S.
But we are also hearing support of the president's plan on Capitol Hill. Republicans who strongly back the president say they see no danger in an agreement that will merely normalize U.S relations with Iraq and forge a long-term alliance against al Qaeda and Iran. And some congressional Democrats see the proposed agreement as consistent with executive branch authority, provided that the administration consults with Congress, and view measures like the DeLauro bill as inappropriate, if not unconstitutional.
We at FCNL see the proposed U.S.-Iraq agreement as a grave threat to efforts to end the Iraq war and specifically to the regional diplomacy that will be needed to extricate the U.S. from Iraq and restore regional stability. The agreement that the administration is seeking is an attempt to secure U.S. and allied interests by force. It would, in effect, be a declaration of long-term U.S. belligerency in the region instead of by balancing all parties' interests through an inclusive regional security agreement. Your active engagement with Congress in the months ahead will be needed to tip the balance toward peace.
II. Annapolis Peace Process Watch
Eight weeks after the Annapolis conference, Israeli-Palestinian violence has increased and the crisis in Gaza threatens to derail the peace process. Saving the Annapolis process would require a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, an end to the Israeli blockade of Gaza, and the restoration of border control between Egypt and the Gaza. The chances of the Annapolis talks going forward "were slim already. Now they're much worse," the progressive Jewish daily, the Forward, commented last week.
Israel has made progress in freezing the expansion of its settlements, as required by Annapolis and reiterated by President Bush on his recent visit to Jerusalem. "Israel has completely frozen all new construction in West Bank settlements, despite recent comments by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert that Israel would treat construction in the major settlement blocs differently from building in most settlements," Israel's leading newspaper Ha'aretz reported this week. This report could give a major boost to the peace process if it proves correct, and if the freeze extends to Israeli construction in contested areas of Jerusalem. Both Israeli and Palestinian analysts put much blame for the breakdown of the previous Oslo process on continuing settlement expansion.
III. Keep on Lobbying
But the crisis in Gaza still threatens the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. The U.S. needs to engage in determined diplomacy to achieve an Israeli-Hamas ceasefire.
Write to Secretary of State Rice and urge her to work for a ceasefire agreement that includes an end to the Israeli blockade and the restoration of border security to prevent the entry of weapons into Gaza. Send a copy of your letter to Secretary Rice to your representative and senators and urge them to press for active U.S. diplomacy. You can find an alert prepared by Churches for Middle East Peace (CMEP), which FCNL cosponsors, and take action via the website.
IV. Articles, Documents, and Reports
Three-Way Israel-Fatah-Hamas Accord Key to Peace
"Reckless in Gaza"