Iraq and Region Update for December 14, 2007
Welcome to FCNL's Biweekly Iraq and Region Update December 14, 2007
This update includes a report on the initial congressional response to reports that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program four years ago and an update on Iraq war funding maneuvers; a recommendation for lobbying; and a selection of key articles, documents, and reports.
Note: The next update will come out January 11, 2008
I. In Congress
In the best of all possible worlds, the finding of the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in fall 2003 would have led to congressional repentance for past harsh votes and rhetoric on Iran and a renewed resolve to negotiate.
Congress would have responded overwhelmingly to the most significant sentence in the National Intelligence Estimate: "Some combination of threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways, might-if perceived by Iran's leaders as credible-prompt Tehran to extend the current halt to its nuclear weapons program." [emphasis added] The response would have been to pass legislation mandating direct, unconditional, and comprehensive negotiations with Iran to discuss the NIE's "opportunities" as well as pressures.
In the Real World
Actual reaction on Capitol Hill to the report was limited. Congress was distracted by funding struggles with the White House (see Congressional Funding struggle) and the press of business to be completed before the Christmas recess. But the report also did not do much to change the domestic politics of the Iran issue. Most in Congress still see little prospect of reward and a serious possibility of punishment if they advocate a change of U.S. policy on Iran.
The most constructive response to the report to date has come from a handful of representatives in the form of a sign-on letter to the president urging him to engage in comprehensive negotiations with Iran. (Click here for how to urge your representative to sign the letter.) "The release of the National Intelligence Estimate and the success of negotiations over arms shipments into Iraq," the letter says, "clearly demonstrate that our nation's differences with Iran can and must be resolved diplomatically." (Statements last month by U.S. military officials in Iraq credit Iran with interdicting the flow of weapons into Iraq.)
To date only a score of House members have signed this letter. The number on board when the letter closes for signatures on December 19 will be an important index of congressional willingness to move the U.S. toward a new and constructive policy in the Middle East.
The President's Take on the National Intelligence Estimate
Critics committed to an aggressive approach to Iran have sought to discredit the National Intelligence Estimate, but President Bush gave the report a strong endorsement at his press conference December 4. "I want to compliment the intelligence community for their good work," he said. The president also seemed to endorse negotiations with Iran. He said that the U.S. had "facilitated" 2003 negotiations between European nations and Iran and described 2003 as "a moment during my presidency in which diplomacy provided a way forward for the Iranians." He added, "Our hope is we can get back on that path again."
But reports that appeared this April presented strong evidence that the U.S. instead in May 2003 abruptly ended a year of high-level back channel talks with Iran that had produced a general outline of a comprehensive U.S.-Iranian agreement. (Read one report of the May 2003 episode here and another with links to the key documents involved here)
Flynt Leverett, a former CIA and State Department analyst who served on the National Security Council under President Bush from March 2002 to March 2003, said, "the administration has never put on the table an offer to negotiate with Iran the issues that would really matter: their own security, the legitimacy of the Islamic republic and Iran's place in the regional order." This offer is what we at FCNL are convinced Congress must press this administration-and the next-to make to Iran. A U.S.-Iran accord is needed to prevent a future war, to help the U.S. exit from Iraq, to boost the Arab-Israeli peace process, and to reduce extremism throughout the Muslim world by setting an example of rapprochement between the West and Islam.
Congressional Funding Struggle
Congress could soon approve more unconditional funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, though how events will unfold in the final week before the Christmas recess is still unclear.
The White House this week rejected a Democratic compromise to agree to war funding in return for White House acceptance of $11 billion more for domestic funding. The House is preparing a new omnibus funding bill reflecting the administration's stated limit on domestic spending. The House could add some $30 billion for the Afghanistan war to the bill and the Senate could then add $40 billion for Iraq. In this scenario, House Republicans with a handful of conservative Democrats would then accept the Senate version and vote $70 billion for war, about 40 percent of the administration's fiscal year 2008 (FY08) request. In this case, Congress would consider the remainder of the funding in February or March.
In the wake of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran and statements by U.S. military officials that Iran has curtailed the flow of weapons into Iraq, Representatives Peter Welch (VT) and Peter DeFazio (OR) have drafted a letter to President Bush calling for direct, unconditional, and comprehensive negotiations with Iran. To date 18 additional members have signed on. It's important that this initiative gain broad support before the letter goes to the president on December 19. Ask your representative today to sign a letter urging the president to pursue diplomacy with Iran.
Read a copy of the draft letter to the president and see a list of current cosigners here
III. Articles, Documents, and Reports
Conservative Analyst Says "Time to Talk to Iran"
Publication of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran has prompted a prominent supporter of the Iraq war, Robert Kagan to conclude that the only Iran policy option left to the Bush administration is to open direct talks with Tehran. If Iran "complies with its nuclear obligations; ceases its support for terrorist violence; and treats its people with justice, humanity and liberalism, it will be welcomed into the international community, with all the enormous economic, political and security benefits this brings," Kagan writes. Read the article here
Kissinger Reiterates U.S. Should Reach for a "Grand Bargain" with Iran
Commenting on the Iran NIE, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger wrote this week, "A coherent strategy toward Iran is not a partisan issue… I have long argued that America owes it to itself to explore fully the possibility of normalizing relations with Iran. We do not need to tranquilize ourselves to the danger in order to pursue a more peaceful world. What is required is a specific vision linking assurances for Iran's security and respect for its identity with an Iranian foreign policy compatible with the existing order in the Middle East… Read Kissinger's article here
Former Military Officials Say Iran Subject to Influence
Following release of the National Intelligence Estimate, the group Win Without War hosted a panel discussion on Iran with retired General Robert Gard, an advisor to Defense Secretary Robert McNamara in the Vietnam era, and retired Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, chief of staff to Secretary of State Colin Powell. Both Gard and Wilkerson argued that war with Iran would be disastrous and called for comprehensive talks. Wilkerson said that the Iranians "can after all be counted on to be rational… that's what the NIE says." View video of the panel discussion here
Text of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran.
Click here to see a pdf of the full text of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran.