Iraq and Region Update for June 13, 2008
Welcome to FCNL's Biweekly Iraq and Region Update for June 13, 2008
In this update . . .
- Iraqis Want Timetable for Withdrawal
- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (NV) Affirms Need for Regional Diplomacy, Talking with Iran;
- Israeli Invasion of Gaza Postponed;
- and a selection of important articles, documents and reports.
I. In Congress
Iraqi Lawmakers Tell Congress Iraqis Want Timetable for Withdrawal; Administration Said to Seek More than 50 Long-Term Bases in Iraq
Two members of Iraq’s parliament told a House panel on June 4 that most Iraqis oppose any U.S.-Iraqi security agreement that does not include a timetable for the withdrawal of all U.S. troops from the country.
While the two parliamentarians were in Washington, other lawmakers in Baghdad said that the United States is asking Iraq to agree to more than 50 military bases in Iraq, U.S. control of Iraqi airspace, authority to launch military operations without Iraqi approval, authority to detain Iraqi citizens, and immunity from Iraqi law for U.S. forces and contractors. Reports of the U.S. objectives have met broad opposition in Iraq from both opposition and government factions. Sami al-Askari, an influential member of parliament and a close ally of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Malki, said this week that “the Americans are making demands that would lead to the colonization of Iraq.” Some reports say the Bush administration may lower its demands because of Iraqi opposition, though none suggest the administration is ready to discuss a timetable for withdrawal.
Senate Majority Leader Reid (NV) Affirms Need for Regional Diplomacy, Talks with Iran
“Some have argued that we need to tie one hand behind our backs and take our most powerful tool – aggressive diplomacy – off the table,” Senator Reid told the annual meeting of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) in Washington on June 4. “I believe that is a weak, ineffective and unwise path. We need a more effective and robust diplomacy,” Reid said. But he added that if diplomacy alone did not succeed, “tougher and more effective sanctions by a united international community” would be necessary. Reid’s affirmation of the importance of diplomatic engagement with Iran diverged significantly from the policy supported by his audience. AIPAC is currently supporting legislation that would impose tougher sanctions on Iran without opening U.S.-Iranian talks, including H. Con. Res. 362, which calls for a blockade of Iran that could be construed as an act of war.
Amid the Capitol Hill talk of diplomacy and sanctions, new hints of war with Iran materialized last week. Israel’s deputy prime minister declared that an Israeli attack on Iran seemed “unavoidable,” while Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said after meeting with President Bush in Washington that “I now have fewer questions about the constraints, timetables and necessary resolve when it comes to Iran." Olmert also reportedly said that "George Bush understands the severity of the Iranian threat and the need to vanquish it, and intends to act on the matter before the end of his term in the White House." But officials travelling with Olmert said that the prime minister told President Bush that sanctions against Iran should be stepped up now because “Iran had still not reached the point of no return as far as nuclear expertise is concerned.”
The hints of war may have been intended only to persuade European governments to support tighter sanctions against Iran on the eve of President Bush’s trip to Europe, where he seeking such support. Nevertheless, the administration’s continuing refusal to talk to Iran without preconditions increases the risk that the United States or Israel will move from threats to military action.
II. Annapolis Peace Process Watch
Israel Postpones Gaza Assault to Extend Cease-Fire Talks but Official Warns Conflict “Inevitable”
Israel’s security cabinet decided this week to postpone plans for a large-scale assault on Hamas forces in the Gaza Strip but instructed its military to continue preparations. Egypt continues a months-long effort to mediate a cease-fire or tahadiyeh (lull) between Israel and Hamas, and Israel sent a diplomat to Cairo again this week to continue talks. But after the cabinet meeting an unnamed official quoted in Ha’aretz said, “We want to check if this cease-fire can hold up but it is clear that a conflict with Gaza is inevitable in the end."
An editorial in Ha’aretz termed an attack on Gaza “justified” to halt rocket attacks on Israel but said there were more persuasive reasons for seeking a cease-fire to halt the attacks. The main argument against military action, Ha’aretz said, “is that Hamas can no more be eradicated than could Hezbollah. After all, both these organizations are first and foremost political movements and not only terror groups.” Yossi Beilin, a dovish member of Israel’s Knesset who played a leading role in past peace talks with the Palestinians, said that “it is probably too late” to prevent the “collective folly” of an invasion of Gaza, but “it is still possible to try to reach a cease-fire instead of the war, and to overcome the primitive thought that the cease-fire must be preceded by a major strike so as to rehabilitate ‘deterrence.’”
III. Keep on Lobbying
Thank You for Urging Congress to “Talk to Iran”More than 5,000 calls have been made to members of Congress as a result of the June 10 call-in day urging Congress to “Talk to Iran.” The Campaign for a New American Policy on Iran and FCNL organized the call, which was designed to urge senators and representatives to press for direct U.S. negotiations with Iran without preconditions. While five members of Congress and passers-by spoke with ordinary Iranians in Tehran by phones set up on the sidewalk near the Capitol, people from around the country called Congress to urge talks, not war, with Iran.
It's not too late to make a call if you haven't already – the toll-free number, 1-800-788-9372, is still working. Find talking points on FCNL's website, and find out more about the June 10 activities on the Campaign’s website.
Thank Senate Majority Leader Reid for Insisting on Diplomacy
Call or write to Senator Reid and thank him for his strong support for U.S. regional diplomacy at the annual meeting of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee last week (as reported above). Call 1-800-788-9372 and ask for Senator Reid's office. Ask his office to include S. 2130, urging a diplomatic surge in the Middle East, as an amendment to the military authorization bill that the Senate will vote on later this month.
IV. Articles, Documents, and Reports
Iraqis Say U.S. Seeks 58 Bases in Iraq
Iraqi lawmakers cited by the McClatchy news service say the United States is demanding 58 bases as part of a proposed "status of forces" agreement that will allow U.S. troops to remain in the country indefinitely, subject to cancellation by either side with two years’ notice. Both government and opposition members of parliament have said the U.S. terms are an unacceptable infringement of Iraqi sovereignty.
Iraqi Parliamentarians Call for Timetable for Withdrawal
In their letter to the U.S. Congress (see section I, above), members of parties holding the majority of seats in Iraq’s parliament demanded that a timetable for U.S. withdrawal be part of any U.S.-Iraqi security agreement and said that parliament “is looking to ratify agreements that end every form of American intervention in Iraq’s internal affairs and restore Iraq’s independence and sovereignty over its land.”
Rice Calls Dialogue with Iran Pointless without Suspension of Nuclear Enrichment
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told the annual meeting of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) in Washington last week that any dialogue with Iran was pointless unless the country suspended its uranium enrichment program. Introducing Secretary Rice, AIPAC’s president urged her “to use your remaining time in office to ensure that Iran does not get a nuclear weapon.”
Neoconservative Analyst Says Obama Win Could Trigger Bush Attack on Iran
"If George W. Bush's term ends with a McCain victory, Bush will likely punt, allowing McCain to decide on the next steps” for the United States to take with Iran, neoconservative Middle East analyst Daniel Pipes wrote in the June 11 edition of USA Today. But if Obama wins, Pipes said, “despite the tradition of outgoing presidents not undertaking major initiatives, Bush might initiate military action against Iran.” In the meantime, Pipes advocated stronger sanctions against Iran but did not call for the United States to engage Iran diplomatically.