Iraq and Region Update for July 11, 2008
Welcome to FCNL's Biweekly Iraq and Region Update for July 11, 2008
In this update . . .
- House Support for War or Diplomacy?
- Is the Israel-Hamas Ceasefire in Trouble?
I. In Congress
Support for War or Support for Diplomacy with Iran?
Support for war in the House has reached disturbing levels. Last month, the House voted to approve $162 billion for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. This final war funding bill for the 110th Congress passed by a two-thirds majority, 268-155. Now, 239 representatives are on record supporting an act of war against Iran: a U.S. partial land, sea, and air blockade.
This sense of Congress resolution, H. Con. Res. 362, "demands that the President initiate an international effort…prohibiting the export to Iran of all refined petroleum products; imposing stringent inspection requirements on all persons, vehicles, ships, planes, trains, and cargo entering or departing Iran."
Although some supporters claim that this bill is an alternative to war, designed to force Iran to the negotiating table, the language of the resolution insures that most of the world, including Iran, will take it as a blockade. Any blockade imposed without UN authority is an act of war.
What about support for diplomacy with Iran? Only 23 representatives have sponsored or cosponsored a resolution calling for comprehensive regional diplomacy that specifically mentions Iran (H. Con. Res. 321), while 60 have added their names to a bill that calls for diplomacy with “Iraq’s neighbors” (H.R. 3797). And last fall, 63 members signed on to the Iraq Study Group Implementation Act (H.R. 2574 ), which endorsed the group's recommendations for regional diplomacy that includes Iran. Three other diplomacy bills (H. Con. Res. 45, H. Con. Res. 43, and H.R. 5056) have garnered fewer than 18 cosponsors. Since many of these members have cosponsored more than one bill supporting diplomacy, in total 128 members of Congress are on the legislative record supporting diplomacy while 239 are on record supporting what is widely construed as a blockade. Congress has yet to pass a bill, binding or non-binding, which affirms inclusive US diplomatic engagement in the Middle East.
Among the 239 supporters of the Iran blockade resolution, FCNL has learned that some members did not realize the full implications of the bill before signing on. They and others could be influenced by constituent requests to remove themselves from the bill and oppose bringing it to a vote. The next few weeks are crucial to the fate of H. Con. Res. 362.
II. Keep on Lobbying
Urge Your Representative to Oppose War with Iran, H. Con. Res. 362
The next few weeks will likely determine whether H. Con. Res. 362 is brought up for a vote. Urge your representative to oppose all efforts to vote on this dangerous bill. If you have already written, please share this alert with three friends and urge them to take action.
III. Annapolis Peace Process Watch
Is the Israel-Hamas Gaza Ceasefire in Trouble?
The four-week-old Gaza cease-fire between Israel and Hamas is in danger of collapsing, according to Egyptian officials who brokered the deal. The cease-fire’s terms dictate that it be followed by a prisoner exchange between Israel and Hamas. Hamas suspended negotiations about such an exchange earlier this week after claiming that Israel had violated the cease-fire.
Continuing Israeli raids in the West Bank, an area not covered by the cease-fire, have prompted Islamic Jihad and Fatah-affiliated groups to fire rockets into Israel from Gaza. Hamas has so far been unable to prevent the rocket fire. Israel has responded to the rockets by closing the Gaza crossing points into Israel that were supposed to be opened under the cease-fire agreement.
In the West Bank, an Israeli campaign against the civil and social infrastructure of Hamas, while not directly related to the cease-fire, could undermine it further. This week the Israeli army shut down a number of institutions in the area, claiming that they had links to Hamas. A shopping mall, a girl’s school, a sports club, and a number of charities were among the organizations closed.
Earlier in the week Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak banned 36 organizations said to have ties to Hamas that collect money abroad for Palestinian educational and charitable work. An Israeli army spokesman said that in the past few years Hamas had built an "organizational system that, if necessary, could serve as the basis for a state," and that the army was now trying to shut this system down.
IV. Articles, Documents, and Reports
Five Reflect on Likelihood of War with Iran before Bush Leaves Office
Will the United States or Israel attack Iran before President Bush leaves office? The consensus among five experts (an Israeli journalist, an Iranian-American activist, an arms expert, an Israeli former peace negotiator, and an antiwar intellectual) assembled by Mother Jones is “probably not, but we can’t be sure.” Former Israeli negotiator Daniel Levy says “if Israel is planning something (and…I'm not convinced), then opposition from the Pentagon can prevent it.”
Recent Iranian Statements Could Open Path to Peaceful Resolution
Against a background of reports of stepped up U.S. covert operations against Iran and Israeli talk of an attack on Iran, Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Trudy Rubin writes that “Tehran has mounted an unexpected diplomatic charm offensive in the waning days of the Bush term, which might be a clever ploy, but also could offer a real chance to defuse tensions with Iran — if not in this administration, then in the next.” Iranian signals of a willingness to negotiate, Rubin reports, “have been flying fast and furious — in New York, Tehran and Paris.”
“Mullahs, Money, and Militias” Looks at Iranian Role in Mideast
A lengthy new report from the U.S. Institute of Peace by journalist and Iran specialist Barbara Slavin argues that Iran’s goals are largely defensive: to prevent foreign intervention in Iran, to have a major say in regional decisions, and to safeguard its national interests. The United States, Slavin says, should consider direct talks with Iran “to constrain Iran’s motivation to further destabilize the region.”
Massachusetts Report Looks at Requirements of Responsible Withdrawal from Iraq
If a new president announces that the United States will withdraw from Iraq in 12 to 18 months, this country should seek support for an expanded UN role there. This role could include sending a UN peacekeeping force, engaging in give-and-take diplomacy with Iran and Syria to stabilize Iraq and the region, and contributing generously to reconstruction and refugee relief. A new report published by the Commonwealth Institute of Massachusetts and authored by Massachusetts peace groups and academics draws these conclusions. Titled “Quickly, Carefully, and Generously: The Necessary Steps for a Responsible Withdrawal from Iraq,” it recommends diplomatic solutions similar to those counseled by the December 2006 Iraq Study Group Report.
Poll Presents Wide-Angle View of Opinion in Arab Countries
Unlike its leaders, the Arab public does not see Iran as a major threat. Only 6 percent of Arabs believe the U.S. surge in Iraq has worked. The Palestinian issue is more important than ever before to people in the Arab world; a majority still supports a two-state solution but thinks it less likely than before. The “2008 Annual Arab Public Opinion Poll,” conducted by University of Maryland Professor Shibley Telhami, presents these results, in a broad canvass of Arab opinion that contradicts many Western stereotypes.