Iraq and Region Update for January 11, 2008
Welcome to FCNL's Biweekly Iraq and Region Update of January 11, 2008
This update includes a look ahead at possible legislative action on Iraq and Iran in coming months; developments in the Annapolis Arab-Israeli peace process; a recommendation for lobbying; and a selection of key articles, documents, and reports.
I. In Congress
The House returns from recess on Tuesday, January 15, and the Senate resumes regular sessions after Martin Luther King Day the following week. The approaching election will limit the time that Congress is in session this year. The House will be in session an average of only ten days a month in the first quarter of 2008 and the Senate is expected to do likewise.
Before it recessed in December, Congress provided $70 billion more in unconditional funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (approximately $30 billion for Afghanistan and $40 billion for Iraq, representing 40 percent of the Bush administration's total war funding request for the 2008 fiscal year). The legislative process played out as we outlined in our last update.
The Remaining 60% of War Funding
Congress still must decide what to do about the remaining 60 percent of the administration's nearly $200 billion war funding request for 2008. The House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee is likely to consider a supplemental war funding bill in March or April. House leaders will probably wait as long as they can and move the bill with as little fanfare as possible. Barring a major change in the U.S. public's view of how the Iraq war is going, we see little chance that additional senators and representatives will support amendments mandating U.S. troop withdrawals from Iraq or will join those calling for cutting off war funding. But Congress may be persuaded to attach other provisions to the supplemental. A mandate for the inclusive regional diplomacy that we at FCNL believe is one of the keys to ending the war and withdrawing all U.S. troops from Iraq is one possibility.
Bush Administration Legacy: Permanent Bases in Iraq?
Congress could also face a new Iraq policy challenge in the spring. The administration seems determined to establish what in effect would be permanent U.S. military bases in Iraq before it leaves office. A cooperation agreement that the administration intends to negotiate with the Iraqi government by July 31 could include a U.S. commitment to station some 50,000 troops in Iraq indefinitely, preempting the ability of both Congress and the next president to carry out a larger or a complete U.S. withdrawal.
The supplemental war funding bill offers the best chance that Congress will have to block the administration's audacious initiative. Congress should amend the supplemental to require congressional approval of any U.S.-Iraq agreement and prohibit the expenditure of funds to implement any agreement without congressional approval.
The pressures and limitations of an election year threaten to dissuade Congress from changing Iraq policy and defeating the administration's effort to lock-in the long-term occupation of Iraq before it leaves office. Your continued engagement with your representative and senators in the months ahead will be necessary to persuade Congress to overcome election year distractions and act now to make it possible for the next administration to change course and withdraw all U.S. troops from Iraq.
II. Annapolis Peace Process Watch
In this new section of the Updates we note developments and challenges in the Israeli-Palestinian-Arab peace process begun at the Annapolis, Maryland meeting in December.
Israeli-Palestinian peace-making certainly needs presidential attention, so the trip to the region that President Bush embarked on this week should be an opportunity for progress. But that opportunity is threatened by the president's decision to make one of the themes of his visit the menace of Iran. We at FCNL believe that engaging Iran to resolve disagreements and to enlist its support for regional peacemaking is both essential and likely to yield results. Without cooperation between the U.S. and Iran, on the other hand, prospects for Israeli-Palestinian peace are much poorer. Iran, Iraq, and the Arab-Israeli conflict have so many interconnections that success in one area is not likely to be achievable without constructive attention to the others. (Read Jim Fine's explanation of why we think this is so.)
III. Keep on Lobbying
Support for the New Diplomatic Offensive for Iraq Act, H.R. 3797, that FCNL has been working on is growing. A half dozen church and peace organizations have joined FCNL in lobbying to move H.R. 3797 through the House. We will all be stepping up our work to get additional cosponsors and a hearing on the bill when the House returns next week. If you've already written to your representative about H.R. 3797, ask two friends to write now. (And, of course, if you haven't written yourself, please do.)
IV. Articles, Documents, and Reports
Are Iran and Syria Hurting or Helping in Iraq?
When Ehud Meets George
Iranian-U.S. Smoke Signals?