Iraq and Region Update for December 5, 2008
In this update…
I. In Congress
The House and Senate are in recess but are expected to return the week of December 8 to consider an auto industry bailout and other efforts to stimulate the economy. The 110th Congress may return for a final week on December 15. The 111th Congress will be sworn in on January 6.
House Hearing Experts Argue U.S.-Iraq Pact May be Unconstitutional in Both Countries
On November 27, the Iraqi parliament temporarily ratified the U.S.-Iraq Security Agreement by a simple majority, with 144 of the 275 members voting in favor. The agreement passed final approval by the Iraqi presidential council on December 4, and the official English version is newly posted on the White House website. This agreement mandates that U.S. combat forces leave Iraqi cities by June 2009 and completely withdraw from the country by December 31, 2011. The agreement only becomes "final" if it is approved by a popular referendum in Iraq, which must be held by July 30, 2009. The arrangement to hold the referendum has been inaccurately reported in the U.S. media as a "Shiite concession" in exchange for "Sunni support." In fact, it resulted from complex bargaining among, on the one hand, Shia, Sunni, Kurdish, and secular parties that collectively support the Maliki government's positions and, on the other, opposition parties that also blur sectarian lines. (For more on the Iraqi politics of the agreement, see veteran Iraq analyst Reidar Visser's thorough analysis.)
This agreement has intensified the long-standing debate in Iraq’s parliament and on its streets not just over the future of U.S. forces in Iraq, but fundamentally over the future shape of Iraq as a federation. Should Iraq have a strong central government or a decentralized and more sectarian divided government? Sunnis, Shias, Christians, secular Iraqis, and Kurds line up on both sides of this question. (Find out more about this dynamic from the testimony that Raed Jarrar, Iraq consultant for the American Friends Service Committee, presented at the most recent U.S. congressional hearing on the the Status of Forces Agreement.)
In Congress, the most authoritative public discussion of the U.S.-Iraq security agreement negotiations has consistently come from the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on International Organizations, Human Rights, and Oversight, chaired by Rep. William Delahunt (MA). At the subcommittee's eighth hearing on the U.S.-Iraq agreement on November 19, law experts testified that the procedure used to pass the U.S.-Iraq agreement may violate both the U.S. and Iraqi constitutions.
In calling the pact a “status of forces agreement,” the Bush administration argues that as with over a hundred other such SOFAs, the president can enter into it without congressional approval. Oona Hathaway, professor of constitutional law at University of California at Berkeley, has argued that many provisions from the leaked draft of the agreement are “unprecedented in a standard status of forces agreement . . . and extend in my view far beyond what the president can do without obtaining congressional approval.” To preserve the constitutional balance of power, she argues, this agreement must be submitted to the Congress for ratification as a treaty, like the security commitments we have with Japan, Germany, South Korea, and NATO members.
In Iraq the agreement was put to the Iraqi parliament for a simple majority vote rather than for the constitutionally mandated two-thirds majority.
As a Quaker organization, we at FCNL are opposed to any agreement that permits a long-term U.S. military presence in Iraq. Although Congress may not endorse the FCNL position, we urge it to insist that it be allowed to vote on the U.S.-Iraq agreement. See FCNL’s statement on the U.S.-Iraq security pact.
Panel of Iran Experts Calls on Obama to Forego Threats and Engage in Unconditional Dialogue
At a congressional briefing hosted by the National Iranian American Council on November 20, a panel of Iran experts unveiled a new report arguing that “sustained engagement is far more likely to strengthen United States national security at this stage than either escalation to war or continued efforts to threaten, intimidate, or coerce Iran.” Former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Thomas Pickering and former U.S. special envoy to the Afghan opposition James Dobbins chaired this panel, which developed a five-step strategy to successfully engage with Iran. The report, the Joint Experts Statement on Iran, also debunks some of the most dangerous myths about Iran, including the inaccurate rumor that “Iran has declared its intention to attack Israel in order to ‘wipe Israel off the map.’” See the full report here.
II. Annapolis Peace Process Watch
The five-month Hamas-Israeli truce has unraveled since the Israeli military entered Gaza on November 5 to destroy what it said was a tunnel dug by militants to abduct Israeli troops. Hamas rocket attacks escalated, followed by repeated Israeli incursions into Gaza. Israel has tightened its hold on the territory and banned foreign media from entering it. Global media executives representing Reuters, the New York Times, the BBC, and other news services wrote to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to protest “the prolonged and unprecedented denial of access to the Gaza Strip for the international media.”
U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon warned of a possible humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and a group of 21 aid organizations charged that the closure was harming their Gaza operations. The Red Cross reported that "the embargo has had a devastating effect for a large proportion of households [in Gaza,] who have had to make major changes on the composition of their food basket." As 2008 ends without the two-state resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict promised at Annapolis, many analysts expect tensions in the region to heighten in the run-up to the mid-February 2009 Israeli elections, with each candidate for prime minister seeking to prove his or her security credentials to an increasingly disillusioned electorate.
III. Keep on Lobbying
As the Israeli-Palestinian conflict intensifies on all sides, a grassroots campaign is underway to ask President-Elect Obama to make diplomacy in the region a top priority. Join major American Christian leaders– Catholic, Evangelical, Orthodox, and Protestant – in signing a letter to Obama urging him to lead a diplomatic effort to reach a final status agreement that establishes a viable Palestinian state alongside a secure Israel. Add your name to a growing list of people of faith from around the country urging the president-elect to make Israeli-Palestinian peace one of the priorities of his first year in office.
FCNL is a member of Churches for Middle East Peace, a coalition of national church bodies, that is coordinating this grassroots campaign.
IV. Articles and Reports
Sitting on the SOFA — What Really Divides Iraqis?
Raed Jarrar, Iraq consultant for the American Friends Service Committee, gave this congressional testimony to explain the controversy between the Iraqi executive branch, which favors a long-term U.S. occupation and decentralization of the country, and the majority of Iraqi parliamentarians, who have long supported a strong, central, nonsectarian Iraqi government and a timetable for the complete withdrawal of U.S. forces. “The two branches have been working at cross purposes and on opposing agendas, thus giving the impression that the Iraqi government is at a standstill. Beneath the surface of this standstill the Iraqi government is in a state of constant confrontation.” Jarrar's testimony includes a detailed diagram portraying the transformation of the Iraqi parliament from a body divided along U.S.-imposed sectarian lines to one split between members who favor a decentralized Iraq protected by a long-term U.S. military presence and those who want a unified Iraq and a set timetable for U.S. withdrawal.