Iraq and Region Update for April 4, 2008
Welcome to FCNL's Biweekly Iraq and Region Update of April 4, 2008
This update includes reports on:
I. In Congress
Congress returned from the Easter recess this week for a two-month long work session. Later this month first the House and then the Senate will begin to consider the remainder of President Bush’s 2008 supplemental funding request for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Congress has so far approved $87 billion for the wars for FY08 and is now deciding whether to approve the administration's request for an additional $102 billion.
We at FCNL expect that Congress will approve the money. But the debate and the votes will set the parameters for what the next administration and the next Congress will be able to do, particularly on two issues of concern to FCNL that we will be working on.
1. Ending the violence by engaging with Iran and with Iraq's other neighbors. FCNL encourages Congress to attach The New Diplomatic Offensive for Iraq Act (H.R. 3797) or similar legislation to the supplemental funding bill. A new U.S. administration cannot have a different policy on Iraq if it does not have a different policy on Iran.
2. Saying no permanent U.S. military bases in Iraq. The administration is negotiating a security agreement with Iraq that could leave U.S. troops there well into the future. The administration denies that it is extending security guarantees to Iraq or seeking permanent bases, but it says it wants a new "authority to fight" to defend Iraq from internal and external threats for an unspecified period of time. FCNL urges Congress to attach The Protect Our Troops & Constitution Act (H.R. 5626) or similar legislation to the supplemental funding bill. This legislation would prevent the administration from signing a long-term security agreement with Iraq unless the agreement is submitted to and approved by Congress.
II. Intra-Shiite Fighting Contrasts U.S. and Iranian Approaches to Iraq
The fighting in southern Iraqi cities, especially in Basra, and in Baghdad has left hundreds dead and set back the prospects of Iraqi political reconciliation. Many U.S. journalists describe the clashes as a fight between the Iraqi army and rebel forces. But while one side wears uniforms and the other wears T-shirts, the Iraqi army is no less a factional force—loyal to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Shiite politician Abdul Aziz al-Hakim—than the militia of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.
The recent fighting, "which the government portrays as a crackdown on criminality," analyst Anthony Cordesman writes, "is better seen as a power grab by Mr. Maliki and the most powerful Shiite political parties…" Some U.S. officials in Iraq have concluded that Mr. Maliki is firing "the first salvo in upcoming elections" scheduled for Iraq’s provinces in October, according to one administration official cited by the Washington Post.
The fighting elicited strikingly different U.S. and Iranian responses. U.S. forces were drawn into the offensive launched by Prime Minister Maliki against Sadr’s Mehdi Army. Iran played the role of peace-maker, demonstrating its influence with all of Iraq’s Shiite parties and a willingness to promote stability by successfully brokering a ceasefire. The U.S. response sent the message that "war is the answer" to the intra-Shiite clashes, while Iran’s action signaled that diplomatic persuasion was the way to a peaceful Iraq. The history of conflicts in the region argues strongly that Iran has it right.
III. Annapolis Peace Process Watch
Two recent developments offer some hope for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, but a new report by the Israeli Peace Now movement provides a discouraging counterpoint.
IV. Keep on Lobbying
Urge your representative to cosponsor The Protect Our Troops & Constitution Act (H.R. 5626). This legislation would prevent the administration from signing a long-term security agreement with Iraq unless the agreement is submitted to and approved by Congress. Find out more about this bill.
V. Articles, Documents, and Reports
Analyst Proposes Middle East Agenda for the Next President
"The next administration will inherit a regional mess in the Middle East that will require more than some presidential goodwill and an image makeover,” Israeli analyst and New America Foundation fellow Daniel Levy writes in the current issue of The American Prospect. Levy’s prescription for the new administration includes withdrawal from Iraq, U.S. talks with Iran and regional Islamist movements, and a concerted effort at Israeli-Palestinian peace.
Gaza Report Urges Ceasefire and Hamas-Fatah Reconciliation
“The policy of isolating Hamas and Gaza is bankrupt and, by all conceivable measures, has backfired”, a new report by the International Crisis Group, “Ruling Palestine I: Gaza Under Hamas,” concludes. The report urges a Hamas-Israeli ceasefire and Hamas-Palestinian reconciliation talks to avert collapse of the peace process and the spread of conflict to the West Bank.