Iraq and Region Update for May 2, 2008
Welcome to FCNL's Biweekly Iraq and Region Update for May 2, 2008
This update includes reports on . . .
- more Iraq war funding
- growing public support for talks with Iran
- the Palestinian president's visit to Washington
- continued efforts by Egypt, and Jimmy Carter, to broker an Israel-Hamas accord
I. In Congress
Congress Ready to Vote $178 Billion More for War
Congress is preparing to approve another $178 billion for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (some 80% of it for Iraq). The House will begin consideration of the war funding bill in the next two weeks.
We at FCNL oppose any new funding for war, but we can also count. The legislative arithmetic that has driven all previous war funding bills in the 110th Congress is at work now. Roughly one-quarter of the House and one-quarter of the Senate oppose further funding for the Iraq war-except the funding needed to withdraw most U.S. troops and maintain a much smaller residual force. The House has a bare majority that supports and would approve legislation that sets a deadline for the withdrawal of most troops. A narrow majority in the Senate also might vote for a nonbinding withdrawal goal, but in the Senate 60 votes are required to end debate and vote, and no legislation setting a deadline for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq has achieved 60 votes in the Senate during the 110th Congress. Adding to this challenge, the Democratic leaders have insisted since they took control of Congress that they will not fail to provide funds to "support the troops." As a result, although only 40 votes would be needed to block approval of legislation providing new money for war, there are not 40 senators prepared to stand in the way of new funding for the president's failed war strategy in Iraq.
We at FCNL don't have a crystal ball, but here's what we expect will happen: After convoluted parliamentary maneuvering and a possible first bill including domestic spending that would deliberately court a presidential veto, the final result-maybe with one or two significant exceptions-will be another blank check for the president's war policies. If, as appears likely, the check includes $108 billion for the remainder of this fiscal year and a $70 down payment for the fiscal year that begins October 1, it will be the last check that Congress will need to write for the war before a new administration takes office in January.
Congress Could Insist on a Change in Policy
FCNL lobbyists will continue working to persuade Congress to take two important steps to begin to reverse the president's failed policy in Iraq and the region. (With the help of your grassroots lobbying we've made progress in these areas, and we can make more in the months ahead to prevent further harm in this administration and prepare the ground for policy change in the next.)
First, members of Congress could insist that any new funding for war be tied to an endorsement of the comprehensive regional diplomacy essential to ending the Iraq war. Second, Congress could block the president's plan to conclude an agreement with Iraq opening the way for a long-term U.S. presence and providing a new authorization for the United States to act against any state or group it deemed a threat to Iraq. See FCNL's letter to the House urging action on these two important steps toward ending the war.
U.S. Public Says Talk with Iran, Don't Shoot, by a 7-to-1 Margin
Recent statements calling for U.S. negotiations with Iran by Sens. Arlen Specter (PA), Diane Feinstein (CA), and House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Howard Berman (CA), may be having a positive effect-or these congressional leaders may be responding to growing public support for diplomacy. Whatever the direction of cause and effect (and part of the cause is the grassroots lobbying that FCNL supporters have done around the country), the trend is encouraging. Public support for diplomacy as the best way for the U.S. to deal with Iran has increased by 34 percent since fall 2008, from 35 percent then to 47 percent today. Support for military action has dropped from 10 percent to 7 percent, according to Public Agenda's spring 2008 "Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index". Support for international economic sanctions, the second most popular option, has dropped slightly to 28 percent, making diplomacy the first choice for dealing with Iran by a ratio of more than 3 to 2 and preferred over military action by a ratio of nearly 7 to 1.
II. Annapolis Peace Process Watch
Palestinian President Abbas Leaves Washington Unsatisfied
Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas was "less than encouraged but not quite resigned to abandon hope" as a result of his meetings with President Bush and other U.S. officials in Washington this week, according to Ziad al-Asali of the American Task Force on Palestine. Asali told Israel's Ha'aretz newspaper that Abbas sought U.S. support for an Israeli settlement freeze and U.S. bridge proposals on the issues of borders, Jerusalem, and refugees. But "expressions of goodwill and benign intentions," Asali said, "were not matched by the conflict-ending positions…that would be accepted by the Palestinian public in a referendum."
Egypt Pursues Israel-Hamas Cease-Fire
Egypt convened representatives of Palestinian factions in Cairo this week, as it persisted in efforts to mediate an Israeli-Hamas cease-fire and a lifting of the Gaza blockade despite an earlier Israeli rejection of a Hamas truce offer.
Carter Wins Hamas Concession, Ha'aretz Tribute
Former president Jimmy Carter said in an op-ed piece in the New York Times that his recent meetings with Hamas leaders in Damascus and Cairo yielded a Hamas commitment to accept any peace agreement with Israel approved in a Palestinian referendum or by an elected Palestinian government. Carter listed other points of agreement by Hamas in his op-ed.
Israel's Ha'aretz, meanwhile, defended Carter's much criticized efforts to engage Hamas. Carter's method of talking with everyone, Israel's leading daily said in an editorial, "has still not proven to be any less successful than the method that calls for boycotts and air strikes… at the end of the day, Carter beats out any of those who ostracize him." Ha'aretz also defended Carter's comparison of the Israeli occupation to South African apartheid. "Israel is not ready for such comparisons, even though the situation begs it," the editorial said. "The interim political situation in the territories has crystallized into a kind of apartheid that has been ongoing for 40 years."
III. Keep on Lobbying
FCNL lobbying has helped create new movement on S. 2130, a resolution introduced by Sen. Robert Casey (PA) last October to implement the diplomatic recommendations of the Iraq Study Group. Sens. Jeff Bingaman (NM) and Jim Webb (VA) signed on to the resolution last week after FCNL grass-roots and Capitol Hill lobbying. The bill's sponsors are seeking to have the resolution attached to the Iraq war supplemental funding bill or the military authorization bill that the Senate will take up in the next few weeks. See if your senators are cosponsors of S. 2130. If so, urge that they work to attach the bill to the Iraq supplemental or the 2009 Defense Authorization bill. If not, ask that they cosponsor and work to enact the bill. Contact your senators here.
IV. Articles, Documents, and Reports
"Iraq after the Surge" Calls for Fair Elections, Regional Diplomacy to End War
"Iraq after the Surge," a two-part report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) - "The New Sunni Landscape" and "The Need for a New Political Strategy" - explores the security and political dimensions of the Iraq surge. The report credits the United States with "smart, pragmatic tactics" but argues that the United States is "devoid of any overarching strategy." A successful strategy, the ICG says, requires a more inclusive approach to Iraqi factions built around the upcoming provincial elections and genuine regional diplomacy that includes Iran and Syria.